Sea warnings

  Date: January 28, 2026 Subject: Analysis of UAV Tracks and Navigation Risk Assessment 1. Aerial Track Analysis (Based on ADS-B Data) The provided imagery from ADS-B Exchange confirms a high-intensity "Shadow Boxing" scenario between U.S. and Iranian assets in the proximity of the Strait of Hormuz . Green Track (Iran): Identified as an Iranian UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) , likely a Shahed-129 or Mohajer-6 . The flight pattern shows a littoral surveillance mission originating from the Hormozgan province. This aligns with the active NOTAMs (Notices to Airmen) issued by Tehran for live-fire drills scheduled between Jan 27–29, 2026. Blue/Pink Tracks (USA/Coalition): These represent high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) assets, likely an RQ-4 Global Hawk or MQ-4C Triton , operating from regional bases (e.g., Al Dhafra, UAE). Their orbit is positioned to provide persistent ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) over the chokepoint to monitor Iranian coastal mi...

  South China Sea – January 27, 2026 A dramatic search and rescue operation in the South China Sea has concluded with the miraculous recovery of a Filipino sailor who survived two days alone in open waters. The incident, which triggered urgent maritime alerts across international shipping lanes, ended when a Russian naval vessel spotted the survivor on January 26. The Disappearance The emergency began on January 25, 2026, when a crew member was reported missing from the C. GRACE , a vessel transiting the South China Sea. The missing individual was identified as a Filipino national serving as a Pumpman (P/M). The initial distress report placed the estimated position of the disappearance at coordinates 06-00.0N, 106-55.4E . Maritime authorities immediately issued high-priority notices to vessels in the vicinity, including the V. PROSPERITY , urging them to maintain a sharp lookout and report any sightings of the missing sailor. Forty-Eight Hours of Survival The seafarer managed to st...

 While the world focuses on terrestrial challenges, a potential catastrophe is brewing 400 kilometers above our heads. The Kessler Syndrome , a theoretical scenario proposed by NASA scientist Donald Kessler in 1978, has moved from the realm of science fiction to a pressing geopolitical and economic risk in 2026. What is the Kessler Syndrome? The Kessler Syndrome describes a tipping point where the density of objects in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) becomes so high that a single collision triggers a cascading chain reaction . In this scenario, two satellites collide, creating thousands of high-velocity fragments. Each fragment then acts as a projectile, striking other satellites and creating even more debris. Eventually, certain orbital planes could become so choked with shrapnel that they become unusable for generations. The Impact on Global Navigation and Maritime Trade The maritime industry is arguably the most vulnerable sector to an orbital collapse. Modern shipping is no longer a matt...

Storm Harry — a powerful Mediterranean cyclone — is rapidly developing and poses significant hazards to marine navigation across the central and western Mediterranean Sea . Mariners should update all voyage plans, avoid non‑essential departures, and monitor official weather and maritime safety broadcasts closely. Meteorological agencies report that a deep extratropical cyclone , locally dubbed Harry , is forming over the Mediterranean. This system is driven by a strong contrast between cold air from northern Europe and relatively warm sea surface temperatures over the Mediterranean basin. Forecast models indicate intensification through Monday 19 January and Tuesday 20 January , with persistent severe weather expected across broad marine areas. Expected Marine Conditions  Wind and Sea State Gale to storm‑force winds expected across extensive Mediterranean sectors. Models suggest max sustained winds potentially exceeding 100 km/h in exposed areas, with very strong gusts...

Recent reports concerning an alleged attack or coercive incident involving a Russian-flagged vessel in international waters have raised questions within the maritime community about potential implications for freedom of navigation and maritime security. While details of the event remain limited and, in some cases, disputed, the situation highlights broader legal and operational sensitivities that merit careful examination. Legal Framework Governing International Waters Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), vessels operating on the high seas are generally subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of their flag state. Exceptions exist, such as cases involving piracy, stateless vessels, or specific internationally recognized enforcement actions. Outside these circumstances, intervention by third states is typically constrained and subject to strict legal interpretation. When an incident occurs involving a vessel properly registered under a national flag, any u...

  Southern Caribbean & Venezuelan Waters Subject: Increased U.S.–Venezuela Tensions – Interdiction & Enforcement Risk Date: 30 December 2025 Validity: Immediate – Ongoing Risk Level: MEDIUM–HIGH Tensions between the United States and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela have escalated in recent weeks, with direct implications for maritime navigation in the southern Caribbean Sea. The United States has intensified naval interdiction, tanker seizures, aerial surveillance, and sanctions enforcement near Venezuelan waters. Venezuela has formally protested these actions, describing them as violations of sovereignty and freedom of navigation, and has raised the issue at the United Nations. While no formal naval blockade or exclusion zone has been officially declared, de facto enforcement actions are underway , increasing operational and legal risk for commercial shipping. KEY DEVELOPMENTS (LAST DAYS) U.S. authorities have seized at least one oil tanker linked ...