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Maritime Security and Aerial Activity - Gulf of Oman

 


Date: January 28, 2026

Subject: Analysis of UAV Tracks and Navigation Risk Assessment

1. Aerial Track Analysis (Based on ADS-B Data)


The provided imagery from ADS-B Exchange confirms a high-intensity "Shadow Boxing" scenario between U.S. and Iranian assets in the proximity of the Strait of Hormuz.

  • Green Track (Iran): Identified as an Iranian UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle), likely a Shahed-129 or Mohajer-6. The flight pattern shows a littoral surveillance mission originating from the Hormozgan province. This aligns with the active NOTAMs (Notices to Airmen) issued by Tehran for live-fire drills scheduled between Jan 27–29, 2026.

  • Blue/Pink Tracks (USA/Coalition): These represent high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) assets, likely an RQ-4 Global Hawk or MQ-4C Triton, operating from regional bases (e.g., Al Dhafra, UAE). Their orbit is positioned to provide persistent ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) over the chokepoint to monitor Iranian coastal missile batteries.

OSINT Context & Recent Developments

Current intelligence indicators suggest a period of extreme tension due to the following factors:

  • Carrier Strike Group Positioning: The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) is currently operating in the Northern Arabian Sea, maintaining a "stand-off" distance while its drone wing monitors the Strait.

  • Electronic Warfare (EW): OSINT reports indicate frequent GPS spoofing and AIS interference near Bandar Abbas, aimed at confusing the navigation systems of Western assets and commercial tankers.

  • Geopolitical Trigger: The activity follows recent escalations regarding the enforcement of maritime sanctions and the increased readiness of Iranian "suicide drone" swarms along the coast.

 Navigation Risk Assessment (Commercial Shipping)

Risk FactorLevelImpact on Navigation
Seizure/DetentionCRITICALHigh probability of IRGC "boarding operations" as political leverage.
GPS SpoofingHIGHSignificant risk of navigational errors; vessels may appear off-course.
Kinetic CollateralMEDIUMRisk from stray munitions during Iranian live-fire exercises.
Strait ClosureLOW/MODERATEUnlikely to be fully closed, but transit delays are expected due to drills.

 Operational Recommendations

  1. Hardened Lookout: Maintain a 24/7 visual watch for fast-attack craft and low-flying UAVs.

  2. Cyber Hygiene: Ensure all bridge systems are updated; rely on traditional radar and visual fixes if GPS discrepancies occur.

  3. Communication: Maintain constant contact with UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) and the IMSC (International Maritime Security Construct).

  4. Transit Protocol: Conduct transits through the Strait of Hormuz during daylight hours if possible, following the established Traffic Separation Schemes (TSS).

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