Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Churns Towards Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi, currently intensifying in the southwest Indian Ocean, poses a significant

threat to Madagascar, Mayotte, and parts of northern Mozambique in the coming days. Here is a comprehensive update on its trajectory, intensity, and expected impacts.

Current Status

As of January 11, 2025, Dikeledi has strengthened to a tropical cyclone with an estimated central pressure of 984 hPa. Located at 12.7°S and 51.5°E, the system is moving westward at 12 knots (22 km/h). Hurricane-force winds of 65 knots (120 km/h) are being observed near the center, with storm-force winds extending outward up to 65 NM (nautical miles) in the southeast quadrant.

Impacted Areas

1. Madagascar
   Dikeledi is forecast to make landfall on January 12 near northeastern Madagascar, between Antsiranana and Antalaha, as a severe tropical storm. The regions of Diana, SAVA, Ambatosoa, Sofia, and Boeny are under green alert, signaling preparedness for possible flooding, strong winds, and storm surges. Residents in these areas should remain vigilant and adhere to local advisories.

2. Mayotte
   The French island of Mayotte has been placed under an orange alert as the cyclone approaches. Heavy rains, strong winds, and potential flooding are expected to impact the island over the weekend. Authorities are urging residents to take precautionary measures.

3. Mozambique and Western Madagascar
   After impacting northern Madagascar, Dikeledi is projected to veer southward, brushing past northern Mozambique and western Madagascar next week. This trajectory could bring additional heavy rainfall and coastal flooding to these areas.

Marine and Weather Conditions

The cyclone is producing squally weather within a 170 NM radius of its center, with rough to phenomenal seas. Gale-force winds extend up to 90 NM southeast of the center, posing significant risks to marine activities. All vessels in the region are advised to seek safe harbor immediately.

Forecast Outlook

By January 12, Dikeledi is expected to maintain its intensity as a severe tropical storm with maximum winds of 55 knots (102 km/h). The system's wide reach means that even areas not directly in its path could experience adverse weather conditions, including strong winds and heavy rainfall.

Preparedness Measures

• Madagascar: Local authorities and humanitarian agencies are on high alert. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) has issued warnings for the northeastern regions of Madagascar.
• Mayotte: Residents are being advised to secure property, avoid coastal areas, and monitor official updates closely.
• General Recommendations: Stay informed through reliable sources, avoid non-essential travel in affected areas, and prepare emergency kits with necessary supplies.

Cyclone Dikeledi represents a severe weather threat to several regions in the southwest Indian Ocean. Its impacts could disrupt lives and infrastructure, particularly in Madagascar and Mayotte. Authorities and residents should remain prepared and vigilant as the storm progresses.