Tropical Storm Ernesto Expected to Strengthen and Move Westward

Tropical Storm Ernesto, currently located near 16.2N, 61.3W, is expected to strengthen and move westward over the next several days, according to a forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm's estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb, with maximum sustained winds of 35 kt and gusts up to 45 kt.

At 13/0900Z, the center of Ernesto was located near 16.2N, 61.3W, having moved from its previous position near 16.1N, 60.5W at 13/0600Z. The storm is currently moving westward at a speed of 17 kt.

The NHC has issued a forecast for the next several days, predicting that Ernesto will continue to move westward and strengthen. By 13/1800Z, the storm is expected to be located near 17.1N, 63.4W with maximum sustained winds of 40 kt and gusts up to 50 kt.

By 14/0600Z, Ernesto is forecast to have further strengthened, with maximum sustained winds of 50 kt and gusts up to 60 kt. The storm is expected to continue moving westward, reaching a position near 18.7N, 65.7W by that time.

The NHC notes that errors in track predictions for tropical storms can be significant, with an average error of around 125 nm on day 4 and 175 nm on day 5. Similarly, intensity forecasts can also have errors, with an average error of around 15 kt each day.

This advisory is intended for mariners, aircraft, and other interests in the northwest Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and the southeastern United States. The NHC has requested three-hourly ship reports within 300 miles of Ernesto's current position.

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